No Christmas rate cut – could rates rise in 2026?

Not so long ago plenty of economists were tipping a fresh round of rate cuts in 2026. But the picture’s not so clear anymore. There’s even talk of possible rate hikes next year. Here’s how you can prepare.

Talk about interest rates being unpredictable! 

We started 2025 with the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA’s) cash rate sitting at 4.35%. February saw the first rate cut in five years. After two further rate cuts, the cash rate is down to 3.60%. 

And thanks to the RBA keeping rates on hold in December, that’s exactly where the cash rate will stay – at least until February when the Reserve makes its next rate call.

The thing is, as recently as October, several of the big banks were predicting lower rates in 2026.

Today, the odds of a rate cut early next year – or any time over the next 12 months – are looking increasingly slim. 

Let’s take a look at why, and what you could do about it.

What’s stopping more rate cuts?

Three factors are keeping the cash rate in a holding pattern.

First, the Aussie economy is growing. It’s only managed growth of 2.1% for the year, but the direction is upwards.

In addition, the job market is strong. The unemployment rate fell to 4.3% in October, down from 4.5% in September.

The chief deal breaker for further rate cuts (for now) is rising living costs. 

Inflation is currently at 3.8%, well above the RBA’s target range of 2-3%. 

Following the December rate meeting, RBA Governor Michele Bullock told journalists “additional (rate) cuts are not needed”. Instead, she flagged the prospect of possible future rate hikes. 

Long story short: official rate cuts appear to be off the table. 

But that shouldn’t stop you from trying to make a rate cut of your own.

Let’s review your home loan

The mortgage market is highly competitive, with some lenders recently trimming their variable home loan rates. 

So there’s a chance you could score a lower rate, especially if you’ve had the same home loan for a while. 

Refinancing to a more competitively-priced loan could put money back in your pocket during in 2026 (and beyond), or help you enjoy loan features better-suited to your needs.

Contact us today for a home loan review – you could line yourself up with a rate cut in time for Christmas after all – or possibly even consider fixing it ahead of any more talk of rate hikes in 2026.